THE THRIVE PLAYBOOK TO TAKE CENTER STAGE
ThE COre THESIS behind the thrive playbook
Over the past 40 years, abundant money supply and declining borrowing costs have allowed businesses to thrive based on asset appreciation and refinancings at increasing valuations.
However, rapidly changing macroeconomics associated with restrictive money supply, increasing borrowing costs and lower valuations make thriving more closely connected with operating cash-flowing businesses that can finance their growth organically.
We believe businesses will need to rely on cash flow generated from their own assets and revenues as opposed to relying on the same financing and investing sources of the past four decades.
Our Thrive Playbook is based on this fundamental conviction.
| 2009 TO 2021 | TODAY | |
|---|---|---|
| FED BEHAVIOR | HIGHLY STIMULATIVE | TIGHTENING |
| INFLATION | DORMANT | 40-YEAR HIGH |
| ECONOMIC OUTLOOK | POSITIVE | RECESSION LIKELY |
| LIKELIHOOD OF DISTRESS | MINIMAL | RISING |
| LABOR MARKETS | OPTIMISTIC | CONCERNING |
| BUYERS | EAGER | HESITANT |
| CONSUMER SENTIMENT | STRONG | ALL-TIME LOW |
| CONSUMER SAVINGS | PADDED | ALL-TIME LOW |
| RISK AVERSION | ABSENT | RISING |
| CREDIT WINDOW | WIDE OPEN | CONSTRICTED |
| FINANCING | PLENTIFUL | SCARCE |
| INTEREST RATES | LOWEST EVER | MORE NORMAL |
| YIELD SPREADS | MODEST | NORMAL |
| GLOBALIZATION | EXPANSIVE | SLOWING/REVERSING |
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